Even when central bankers are surprised, they do so conservatively. Jerome Powell cut rates 50 bps but then did his best to allay any concerns that the US economy is secretly worse than it seems. Meanwhile, in Oz, the RBA remains alert but not alar...
Learn moreWhat do central bankers like to do in their spare time? If the annual meeting in Jackson Hole Wyoming is a gauge, they like hiking and canoeing. Both activities typically follow a set route and are performed at a leisurely pace. Should we expect anythin...
Learn moreIt’s not looking good for the Australian dollar. The AUD has been trending down against the greenback since 2021 (AUD/USD)(see chart below). Now, several factors have come together to add a few more anchors to the AUD; it’s down around 6% si...
Learn moreBridges may be crashing down, cargo ships sinking in the Red Sea, and the Panama canal drying up but the major stock markets continue to push new highs. If we are in an AI stock market bubble, surely ChatGPT would tell me? The US has gone from &ldqu...
Learn moreHave you ever looked at your credit card or mortgage interest payments and felt sick? Well, the US federal government is expected to pay USD 870 billion in interest payments this year which is around USD 48 billion more than it is expected to spend on d...
Learn moreAustralia and the US are looking towards soft landings with inflation on the way down and resilient domestic economies. Japan may have begun monetary tightening while China and the UK remain economic disappointments. What is happening in Australia? ...
Learn moreThe RBA and Federal Reserve are both having a breather as inflation continues to head in the right direction. More interest rate increases are coming but their economies are proving resilient. The UK is an outlier with its stubbornly higher inflation. C...
Learn moreFears of a financial meltdown in the US and Europe have faded and instead we have returned to regular broadcasting with slowing inflation and slowing economies. The UK with its stubborn inflation remains the odd country out. China is still benefiting fr...
Learn moreCentral bankers were already suffering from analysis paralysis with inflation versus recession, but March has now thrown banking crises into the mix. We live in interesting times! The good news is that for the investor, there are gains to be had in vari...
Learn moreInterest rates will still need to rise higher and for longer, but there are signs in Australia and the major economies that a slowdown is coming. How fast that slowdown occurs will determine the actions of central banks over the next year. What is h...
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