Even when central bankers are surprised, they do so conservatively. Jerome Powell cut rates 50 bps but then did his best to allay any concerns that the US economy is secretly worse than it seems. Meanwhile, in Oz, the RBA remains alert but not alar...
Learn moreWhat do central bankers like to do in their spare time? If the annual meeting in Jackson Hole Wyoming is a gauge, they like hiking and canoeing. Both activities typically follow a set route and are performed at a leisurely pace. Should we expect anythin...
Learn moreNo, r-star doesn’t stand for “rock star”! Rather, it is the official cash rate that has a neutral impact on an economy: neither contractionary nor expansionary. It is critical for both central bankers and investors. R-star is the i...
Learn moreTourist and alternative lifestyle mecca Byron Bay may be getting stripped of its nudist beach but it is the RBA that is getting embarrassed by larger than expected figures! Meanwhile, the EU has started cutting, the US remains on course for cuts, Japan ...
Learn moreUS consumers seem more Garfield than Furiosa at the moment with some good news on the inflation and consumer confidence fronts in May. Inflation may not be so sticky in the US after all? The Fed Reserve is however still talking tough. Inflation is still...
Learn moreThe copyright to Peter Pan is now in the public domain. While Peter won’t grow up, we have economies that are not quite ready to slow down all the way! The soft landing didn’t happen in 2023 but still looks good for 2024. What happ...
Learn moreThe RBA and Federal Reserve are both having a breather as inflation continues to head in the right direction. More interest rate increases are coming but their economies are proving resilient. The UK is an outlier with its stubbornly higher inflation. C...
Learn moreFears of a financial meltdown in the US and Europe have faded and instead we have returned to regular broadcasting with slowing inflation and slowing economies. The UK with its stubborn inflation remains the odd country out. China is still benefiting fr...
Learn moreCommentary on Reserve Bank Board Interest Rate Decision - 7 February 2022 On 7 February, Australia had its own version of Groundhog Day with the RBA Board increasing the official interest rates by 25 bps to 3.35 percent. It was the ninth increase in...
Learn moreOn 1 November, the RBA Board increased interest rates by 25 bps. They still expect inflation to peak around 8 percent later this year but they are hoping that strong domestic demand and a tight labour market will moderate so that they won’t have t...
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