Even when central bankers are surprised, they do so conservatively. Jerome Powell cut rates 50 bps but then did his best to allay any concerns that the US economy is secretly worse than it seems. Meanwhile, in Oz, the RBA remains alert but not alar...
Learn moreWhat do central bankers like to do in their spare time? If the annual meeting in Jackson Hole Wyoming is a gauge, they like hiking and canoeing. Both activities typically follow a set route and are performed at a leisurely pace. Should we expect anythin...
Learn moreMany see LNG as a bridge to greener energy. Less emissions than coal and more reliable than wind and solar. For Australia it has come out of nowhere to be a golden bridge. But there is debate over how long that bridge will stretch. It may end sooner tha...
Learn moreContinuing good inflation data in the US has sent markets into the “great rotation”. However, the Federal Reserve still needs a little more good news before it decides to cut. In Australia, the all-important June quarter CPI print was a mixe...
Learn moreAt 10:08 am (AEST) on 15 July 2024, the ASX 200 broke the 8,000 barrier for the first time (see chart below). But unlike the breaking of the 7,000 mark in January 2020, it was more of a raspberry than a bugle call. There is too much uncertainty around t...
Learn moreNo, r-star doesn’t stand for “rock star”! Rather, it is the official cash rate that has a neutral impact on an economy: neither contractionary nor expansionary. It is critical for both central bankers and investors. R-star is the i...
Learn moreTourist and alternative lifestyle mecca Byron Bay may be getting stripped of its nudist beach but it is the RBA that is getting embarrassed by larger than expected figures! Meanwhile, the EU has started cutting, the US remains on course for cuts, Japan ...
Learn moreChatGPT is dominating public attention but behind the scenes there is arguably a bigger computer revolution brewing. If the potential of quantum computing is realised, all current cryptography will be made obsolete and meteorological models could dramat...
Learn moreUS consumers seem more Garfield than Furiosa at the moment with some good news on the inflation and consumer confidence fronts in May. Inflation may not be so sticky in the US after all? The Fed Reserve is however still talking tough. Inflation is still...
Learn moreLast week’s Federal budget had an AUD 22.7 billion headline: Australia wants to be among the leaders of renewable energy and it is willing to invest public money to do it. Welcome to the “Future made in Australia”. This brave-new i...
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