George Miller’s Mad Max movies are set in the post-apocalyptic Australian outback. We are thankfully a long way from that dystopia, but the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is starting to affect the Australian economy, from empty petrol stations to ...
Learn moreThe RBA raised interest rates by 25 bps to 4.1%. It was a split decision, with five members of the Board voting for the increase and four voting to leave rates at 3.85%. Recent data confirmed to the RBA that there is still too much inflationary pres ...
Learn moreAI bubble concerns morphed into the 'SaaSpocalypse' as AI agents threaten to eat all software and replace all jobs. Perhaps the governor of the RBA may feel a little nervous as the RBA wrestles with still-rising inflation. Elsewhere, Takaichi re ...
Learn moreAs its revenue from iron ore, LNG, and coal slowly falls, Australia can rely on growing revenue from gold and copper. The price of copper has nearly tripled since March 2020 (see chart below) and in its latest earnings report, mining giant BHP earned mo ...
Learn moreIn 2025, Australia was the third-largest bond market globally with a total issuance of AUD 320 billion. 2026 could be even bigger. Through 27 January, AUD bond issuance has set a record pace this year, with over AUD 50.7 billion issued (see chart below) ...
Learn morePolitics overshadowed the economy in January. Fears of an AI bubble gave way to fears over Venezuela, Greenland, Iran, and Minnesota. However, economics cannot be ignored, and the month ended with the announcement of a new Fed chair, falling gold and si ...
Learn moreThe RBA raised interest rates by 25 bps to 3.85%. It was a unanimous decision. Recent inflation and employment data were hotter than the surface of the courts at the Australian Open! The RBA had signalled at its last meeting that it might need to ra ...
Learn moreGovernment interest payments on public debt will be a hot topic in 2026. As the income tax cuts from Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill Act come into force, attention will again turn to the sustainability of US debt. Japanese interest payments will also g ...
Learn moreSince the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia’s labour market has been surprisingly strong. Even as the RBA increased interest rates and GDP growth slowed, employment growth has kept surprising on the upside (see chart below). In December, the ...
Learn moreFor AI true believers, 2025 should have been the year that ushered in artificial general intelligence. For Trump true believers, 2025 was the year that Trump saved America, again. Everyone else was just happy that the AI boom did not crash and that ...
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