Even when central bankers are surprised, they do so conservatively. Jerome Powell cut rates 50 bps but then did his best to allay any concerns that the US economy is secretly worse than it seems. Meanwhile, in Oz, the RBA remains alert but not alar...
Learn moreWhat do central bankers like to do in their spare time? If the annual meeting in Jackson Hole Wyoming is a gauge, they like hiking and canoeing. Both activities typically follow a set route and are performed at a leisurely pace. Should we expect anythin...
Learn moreUS consumers seem more Garfield than Furiosa at the moment with some good news on the inflation and consumer confidence fronts in May. Inflation may not be so sticky in the US after all? The Fed Reserve is however still talking tough. Inflation is still...
Learn moreIt’s not looking good for the Australian dollar. The AUD has been trending down against the greenback since 2021 (AUD/USD)(see chart below). Now, several factors have come together to add a few more anchors to the AUD; it’s down around 6% si...
Learn moreStock markets in the US and Australia have been flirting with all time highs as the end of year rally continued into January but in China, the situation is not so grand. House prices and consumer spending are down again while stock market lows hav...
Learn moreCentral banks are still waiting to see more data before declaring victory against inflation but it seems like the war has already been won. ”Happy Xmas (The war is over).” Even better, a soft landing still seems the most likely outcome for t...
Learn moreWith the return of El Nino, conditions are hotting up in Australia. However, the US bond market is also feeling the heat with a sell-off leading to higher yields for longer-dated bonds. These are conditions not seen since the 1980s! Back in the People&r...
Learn moreWhen America sneezes, Australia catches a cold but what happens to Australia when China chokes on a property crisis? We are about to find out! The property sector represents around a quarter to a third of the Chinese economy. Rather than rebounding afte...
Learn moreDr Lowe signed off with another pause in interest rates - no final pull on the interest rate lever! With a slowing but resilient economy, the RBA is comfortable to stay on the sidelines and observe. It did however join the international chorus of co...
Learn moreThe RBA and Federal Reserve are both having a breather as inflation continues to head in the right direction. More interest rate increases are coming but their economies are proving resilient. The UK is an outlier with its stubbornly higher inflation. C...
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